A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
